Manifold
Community sentiment from play-money forecasting markets.
Manifold is useful for understanding community sentiment and long-tail forecasting questions. Unlike cash-settled venues, Manifold uses play money, so its probabilities should be interpreted as community forecasting signals rather than prices from a cash market.
Community sentiment, not cash-market pricing
Parlay includes Manifold because it can surface useful public forecasting context. Treat results as play-money community sentiment.
What Parlay Uses Manifold For
- finding long-tail questions that may not exist on cash venues
- adding community sentiment to a market brief
- comparing how public forecasters frame similar questions
Useful Tools
search_marketsdiscover_marketscompare_marketsinspect_platformmarket_brief
Caveats
Manifold markets can be created by the community and may use different resolution norms than cash-settled venues. Always review the original market page and creator notes.